Participants in prediction markets have engaged in significant wagers concerning the potential bombing of Iran by U.S. and Israeli forces, reaping profits in the process.

According to Bloomberg, contracts associated with the timing of the attack saw $529 million traded on Polymarket. An investigation by the analytics company Bubblemaps SA revealed that six newly established accounts finished with a profit of $1 million by accurately betting that the U.S. would target Iran by February 28 — a pattern that may suggest insider trading.

While these wagers might simply indicate wider speculation regarding U.S. actions in Iran, Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman pointed out that the flow of information “related to war or conflict,” along with Polymarket’s anonymity, “can incentivize informed participants to take action earlier.”

In January, the analytics firm Polysights also observed a notable increase in bets regarding the possibility that Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would not retain his position by the end of March.

In response to worries that such wagers might effectively introduce a financial motive for assassination, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated, “We do not offer markets directly related to death. When markets exist where potential outcomes involve death, we formulate the rules to ensure individuals cannot gain from death.” He further mentioned that Kalshi would reimburse all fees associated with these bets.