Who doesn’t enjoy a thrilling case of FOMO? From the dot-com era to Web 2.0, virtual reality to blockchain, the technology sector has seen its fair share of anxiety about missing out on trends.

The AI bubble is the grandest of them all. Its initial offspring — the frenzy to secure power for data centers — is now spawning a frantic race to obtain natural gas resources and machinery. If FOMOs could reproduce, the AI bubble is already in the grandparent phase.

On Tuesday, Microsoft announced that it’s collaborating with Chevron and Engine No. 1 to construct a natural gas power plant in West Texas that could expand to generate 5 gigawatts of electricity. This week, Google verified that it’s partnering with Crusoe to create a 933 MW natural gas power facility in North Texas. Additionally, last week, Meta revealed it would be adding seven more natural gas power plants to its Hyperion data center in Louisiana, escalating the site’s capacity to 7.46 GW — sufficient to power the entire state of South Dakota.

Is there anyone we’ve overlooked?

The recent funding is primarily focused in the southern U.S., which hosts some of the largest natural gas reserves globally. The U.S. Geological Survey recently estimated that in one area alone, there’s enough to provide energy to the entire United States for 10 months. Every data center operator seems eager to stake a claim.

The rush for natural gas has caused a shortage of turbines for power plants, with prices expected to soar by 195% by year’s end compared to 2019 figures, as noted by Wood Mackenzie. This equipment accounts for 20% to 30% of the total cost of a power plant. Firms won’t be able to make new orders until 2028, and turbine delivery is taking an estimated six years, according to the consultancy.

This indicates that tech companies are wagering that the AI craze will persist, that AI will require ever-increasing amounts of energy, and that natural gas power generation will be crucial for triumph in the AI age.

They may eventually regret that third assumption.

While the U.S. boasts ample natural gas supplies, and shipping the fuel isn’t economical, the country is somewhat shielded from the unrest in the Middle East. However, supplies are not infinite, and recently, growth in production from the major three regions — responsible for three-quarters of all U.S. shale gas output — has decelerated significantly.

It’s uncertain how insulated tech firms are from price fluctuations as no specific terms of their agreements have been disclosed. Much will hinge on how firm the pricing is in those contracts.

Even if the contracted prices are as stable as possible, companies could still encounter challenges.

Since natural gas accounts for around 40% of electricity generation in the U.S., according to the Energy Information Administration, electricity costs are closely linked to natural gas prices. Tech firms might briefly mitigate scrutiny by relocating their gas power plants behind the meter — bypassing the grid and connecting them directly to their data centers. Nevertheless, natural gas is a finite resource, and if their aspirations expand too significantly, even behind-the-meter operations could inflate power prices for all. This pattern has been observed before.

It won’t solely be ordinary households that become disgruntled. Other sectors, including those more reliant on natural gas who haven’t yet switched to renewables, might object to data centers monopolizing so much of the resource. Powering a data center with wind, solar, and batteries is straightforward. Operating a petrochemical facility? Not nearly as simple.

Then there’s the factor of climate. A single harsh winter could alter the dynamics by increasing demand among households. Wellheads might freeze, drastically reducing supplies, as experienced in Texas in 2021. When gas becomes scarce, suppliers will be faced with a dilemma: keep the AI data centers operational or allow residents to heat their homes?

By acquiring natural gas resources and operating behind-the-meter, tech companies can assert that they’re “providing their own power” and not straining the electrical grid. However, in reality, they’re merely transferring their usage from one grid to another, the natural gas network. The AI surge has highlighted how physically limited the digital realm remains. Is it wise for them to place big bets on a limited resource? Tech firms may come to regret falling for the FOMO.