Upon observing Elon Musk enthusiasts enthusiastically driving up a contract on the prediction market Kalshi that suggested the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could successfully lower federal expenditures within a year, Alan Cole realized he had to make the bet, as reported in The Wall Street Journal about Cole’s earnings.

Cole, an international tax specialist, understood one thing in life: slashing federal spending wouldn’t happen overnight, he stated to the WSJ. Even if DOGE terminated certain federal contracts and downsized its workforce (which it indeed did), numerous existing commitments and the soaring federal debt would persist.

Consequently, he staked his entire life savings — exceeding $342,000 — on the opposing bet that the U.S. federal budget wouldn’t instantaneously contract. He gradually acquired 3% of a Kalshi prediction market that had escalated to $12 million (making some hedging bets during the process), he mentioned to the WSJ.

When the government published the 2025 year-end spending report on February 20, evidencing increases from 2024, Cole emerged with $470,300 and a substantial $128,000 gain.