SpaceX initiated its IPO on the same day that the U.S. dispatched astronauts to the Moon for the first occasion in 54 years. The timing is fitting: This may be the final attempt by NASA to send humans to deep space without substantial support from a company that rose from the venture-funded tech ecosystem.

The roots of NASA’s present lunar initiative can be traced back to a convoluted timeline during the second Bush administration, which commenced the development of a colossal rocket and a spacecraft named Orion to return to the Moon. By 2010, the initiative had surpassed its budget and was scaled back — in conjunction with a new program to support private companies constructing new orbital rockets.

This choice resulted in a saving contract for SpaceX and an influx of venture capital into outer space technology, alongside the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, which is currently transporting four Americans and one Canadian around the Moon and back. 

The SLS stands as the most robust operational rocket globally today. It has only flown once previously, launching an uncrewed Orion spacecraft on a trial flight around the Moon in preparation for this week’s significant mission, which will establish a record for the farthest humans have ventured into the solar system. 

Next time, however, the spotlight will be on SpaceX or Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin. The two firms are vying to see who will place boots on the lunar surface. 

SLS and Orion were manufactured by NASA’s historical contractors, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, with assistance from Europe’s Airbus Defense and Space. They were also expensive, delayed, and over budget, while SpaceX was operating a fleet of affordable reusable rockets and initiating a substantial wave of investment into private space.

When NASA resolved to revisit the Moon in 2019, the agency believed it had to remain committed to the SLS and Orion.

Yet, a critical element was lacking: A vehicle to ferry astronauts from space down to the Moon’s surface. Thus, NASA decided this would originate from the new breed of venture-backed space enterprises. The agency also sought help from several private space firms to deploy robotic landers for exploration and trials, including Firefly Aerospace and Intuitive Machines.

SpaceX proposed to use its Starship rocket as a lander and secured the role in 2021. This was a contentious choice. Transporting the massive vehicle to the Moon will necessitate a dozen or more launches to adequately fill it with fuel for the journey. After enduring years of waiting for the spacecraft, NASA opted to delay an attempt to land on the Moon and restructure its program.

“This is an architecture that no NASA administrator that I’m aware of would have selected had they had the choice,” stated former NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine to Congress last year, highlighting that the decision was taken without a Senate-confirmed leader at the agency.

Blue Origin was included in the lineup in 2023 to develop its own human landing system.

Currently, the agency seems to be preparing for a competition: In 2027, NASA will evaluate Orion’s capability to rendezvous with one or both landers in orbit, ahead of two potential lunar landings in 2028. This will place added pressure on SpaceX’s forthcoming Starship test, potentially occurring this month, as well as Blue Origin’s plans to trial its lander on the Moon sometime this year. 

This year has witnessed a significant reform of the program under the new NASA administrator, billionaire entrepreneur Jared Isaacman, who funded SpaceX for two space missions and was endorsed by Musk as the fitting candidate for administrator. After being nominated for the position by President Donald Trump, having his nomination withdrawn, and being renominated, he took office in late 2025 faced with a series of challenging decisions about how to return to the Moon.

In March, Isaacman cancelled plans, often regarded as wasteful or politically driven by external observers, to construct a lunar space station known as Gateway, and to invest in costly upgrades for the SLS. Now, he is fully committed to the new wave of private space companies. 

However, with China diligently pursuing its own agenda to land one of its citizens on the Moon by 2030, any delays or missteps will be interpreted in a geopolitical context. Silicon Valley has so far been unable to surpass Chinese companies in the tangible fields of electric vehicles or robotics. SpaceX has become the entity that entrepreneurs across the Pacific aspire to replicate, but in their lunar endeavors, Silicon Valley will have an opportunity to prove it can still dominate the technological frontier.