The autonomous vehicle tech firm Aurora informed investors last week of its plan to deploy over 30,000 self-driving trucks on the streets, aiming to generate $5 billion in yearly revenue by the conclusion of 2030 — an ambitious goal given that it anticipates finishing 2026 with merely 200 autonomous trucks and an $80 million revenue rate.

CFO David Maday believes that the seemingly lofty target is not as unattainable as it may seem.

“While 30,000 certainly feels substantial — and it does indeed in the field of autonomy — in relation to the overall truck market, it’s actually quite modest,” he shared with TechCrunch in a recent chat, further noting that the four leading truck manufacturers generate between 250,000 and 300,000 new trucks annually. “I don’t view it as aspirational,” he remarked, “I genuinely think we can achieve this.”

Investors have not warmly received Aurora’s vision for 2030. Shares have continued to decline following the company’s annual analyst and investor day on September 23. On Monday, shares fell by 12.42%, closing at $5.29.

However, investors have time to adjust their views, and according to Maday, the major “unlock” for Aurora is anticipated to begin in 2027, accelerating from that point onward. The company projects a leap from 200 driverless trucks by the end of 2026 to over 1,000 a year later.

Currently, Aurora runs what it describes as a transportation-as-a-service business — a proof-of-concept model that it aims to cap at around 500 trucks. It owns and operates the self-driving vehicles while charging clients, including Detmar Logistics, Hirschbach, McLane, and Werner, roughly $2 per mile, which incorporates a fuel surcharge.

This pricing aligns closely with the typical rates offered by other carriers. The significant transformation — and the real cost savings, according to Maday — is expected next year when Aurora shifts to a driver-as-a-service model. In this new framework, customers will purchase the self-driving trucks and pay Aurora a per-mile subscription fee for the autonomous technology, which is projected to be about $0.85. With this system, customers will own and maintain the trucks, while Aurora will look after the self-driving technology and its necessary hardware.

Removing the trucks from Aurora’s balance sheet is vital for scaling — and likely what investors are focusing on. The company anticipates reaching breakeven gross margins (where revenue will cover direct operational costs of running the trucks) on a run-rate basis in the first half of 2027 with approximately 500 trucks operational.

The next significant advancement is expected at the end of 2027 with Aurora’s third-generation hardware — the sensors, computers, and other equipment enabling its trucks to operate autonomously — which will be mass-produced autonomous vehicle hardware developed by its partner, Aumovio (formerly known as Continental). Aumovio is not only engineering and fabricating the hardware kit; they are also financing it for Aurora — alleviating some financial pressure off the autonomous truck company. Additionally, Aumovio will provide servicing and repairs for the kits to customers.

Simultaneously, Aurora intends to expand its operations. By 2030, the company plans to extend its reach beyond just a handful of states in the South to cover most of the continental U.S., as stated by Maday.

“By 2028, I expect that our cost structures will be exceptionally strong, which is why you see our gross margin anticipated to rise significantly …” Maday noted. “Once we reach that stage, I believe entering the ride-hailing sector will be appropriate,” he confirmed, reiterating that Aurora still aims to eventually venture into the robotaxi market.