
On Sunday, a research group known as Citrini Research released a notable report depicting how agentic AI could lead to widespread economic turmoil within the next two years. The envisioned scenario presents a report from two years down the line, indicating that unemployment has increased twofold, and the overall value of the stock market has plummeted by over a third. As expressed in the report:
AI capabilities grew stronger, companies required fewer employees, layoffs in the white-collar sector escalated, displaced workers cut back on spending, margin pressures pushed firms to invest further in AI, AI capabilities grew stronger…
This set off a negative feedback loop with no natural stopping mechanism…The system evolved into a continuous daisy chain of interrelated bets on white-collar productivity enhancement.
This represents a novel type of bearish outlook, concentrating not on misalignment akin to Skynet but rather on the gradual unraveling of the economy itself. Specifically, the Citrini forecast examines the consequences of embedding AI agents into the broader economy, and the ramifications when external contractors are supplanted by less expensive in-house AI. It bears similarities to the Death of SaaS scenario, yet Citrini extends the argument, implicating any business model focused on optimizing transactions among businesses.
As anticipated, the report is generating significant buzz online. Not everyone concurs with its conclusions — even Citrini refers to it more as a scenario than a definitive forecast — but identifying the exact moment when the scenario falters is a challenge.
Personally, I have doubts about whether companies are prepared to delegate purchasing decisions to AI agents, regardless of their sophistication. However, in Citrini’s scenario, many of the affected decisions have already been entrusted to third-party contractors, making it less improbable than it appears.





