Before the prior week, very few were familiar with the name Alap Shah. The 45-year-old financial analyst and technology entrepreneur had been laboring quietly for two decades. Then, over the weekend, he co-authored a blog with the research company Citrini titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” It was a speculative article discussing the repercussions of artificial intelligence, predicting that by June in that year, AI would elevate unemployment beyond 10 percent and result in considerable market downturns. With a self-assured, prophetic style reminiscent of a Michael Lewis narrative, the authors depicted a negative feedback loop: AI agents displace jobs, consumer spending declines, and firms resort to perpetual layoffs.
Much of the content was familiar territory. Tech figures like Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei have already stated that half of the entry-level white-collar positions will disappear shortly, and Anthropic’s launch of new AI tools earlier this year brought about a sell-off on Wall Street. Nevertheless, the report made a substantial impact, coinciding with a significant drop in the Dow. Alap Shah’s name received unexpected notoriety.
Upon closer inspection, however, the reaction is not as remarkable. Similar to the general public, Wall Street is extremely worried about AI, with minor provocations causing considerable market fluctuations. Financial markets don’t always mirror reality, but these reactions highlight a broader anxiety. The AI future, reminiscent of a William Gibson concept, is unevenly distributed, leading to thrilling yet disconcerting developments.
No one completely grasps AI’s economic influence, but it is destined to be significant. Currently, stock values are elevated, encouraging market hopefulness. However, ominous reports or studies suggesting potential AI-induced disruptions remind investors of the unresolved and urgent issues at play. For example, earlier this month, a small company shifted from selling karaoke machines to AI logistics and released a report on enhancing truck loading efficiency, resulting in major losses in key logistics stocks, none of which had any prior connections to karaoke.
Following its effect on Wall Street, the Citrini report faced considerable backlash. Critics quickly pointed out its flaws. Some contended that AI has not yet had a meaningful effect on the economy. Others referenced historical resilience after technological advancements. A satirical response from Citadel Securities dismissed the report’s conclusions by outlining improbable conditions under which AI could instigate a lasting economic shock.
The most intense criticisms targeted the report’s claim that much of the economy is composed of unproductive middlemen and market makers exploiting public complacency. Shah argued that AI agents will enable consumers to effortlessly find the best deals, rendering apps unnecessary. He pointed out that DoorDash represents this transformation; consumers could circumvent apps, employing AI agents to directly arrange meals from restaurants and delivery services, resulting in a seamless experience. The implication is that companies like DoorDash are essentially comparable to outdated trends.
