War Bros Once Didn't Dominate Silicon Valley

War Bros Once Didn’t Dominate Silicon Valley

In September 2015, the Founders Fund convened a retreat at an eco-resort in British Columbia. The majority of attendees were VCs and representatives from the companies they supported, but a handful of outsiders were also invited, including computer innovator Alan Kay, author Neal Stephenson, and myself.

One morning during breakfast, I found myself seated across from Kay at a lengthy table. As Kay, the inventor of the Dynabook—essentially the prototype of the modern computer—shared his experiences, Founders Fund’s Peter Thiel joined our table. Kay spoke enthusiastically about refining the mouse and consulting for Steve Jobs, while Thiel’s skepticism became increasingly evident. Sooner or later, Thiel inquired of Kay, “Who ARE you?” Taken aback, Kay attempted to recount his accomplishments but realized they could sound exaggerated to someone unfamiliar. He halted mid-sentence and acknowledged, “I’m just an old has-been,” before continuing with his breakfast. This encapsulated a moment of disconnection between two distinct realms.

In contemplating this, I came across a New York Times op-ed titled “Silicon Valley Was Right From the Start” by Sharon Weinberger. She contended that the perception of Silicon Valley as being driven by counterculture was misleading. The current trajectory toward substantial wealth and military technology integration reflects the industry’s true essence. Her essay served to promote her book “Valley of Death: How Big Tech Is Fueling the Future of War.”

Weinberger asserted that the values of Silicon Valley had not altered, only the clientele, framing the industry’s interest in military technology as an adaptation to market demands rather than an ideological transformation. She argued that the ideals of the PC and Internet eras were merely superficial to facilitate product sales and increase profits.

I hold a different view. Beginning in the late 1970s, a generation of technologists inspired by counterculture spurred innovation, laying the groundwork for the current industry wealth. Although the ties to the defense sector remained, newer generations were idealistic, often opposing conventional practices. This shift influenced both the tech industry and the overall business culture in America. To dismiss this idealism is erroneous and serves to rationalize the new generation’s pivot toward military contracts.

Upon sharing my perspective with Weinberger, she acknowledged my closer ties to tech culture but stood by her op-ed. She remarked, “We’re products of what we grow up in,” and the evolution from defense to consumer markets reflects the varied values and necessities of their respective epochs.

She maintained that the shift to lucrative prospects, like military technology, does not indicate ideological changes but rather addresses market requirements. The primary motivation remained company success. For instance, Apple collaborated with the military only when the consumer market was sufficient.

John Perry Barlow, JFK Jr., and an Evening of Indelible Sorrow

Watching the immensely popular television series Love Story took me back to a strange week from my history. One afternoon in April of 1994, while I was working in a studio apartment that I had converted into an office, I received some devastating news from my wife: Cynthia Horner, a psychiatrist companion and co-tenant at the office, had passed away just before reaching her 30th year. Cynthia had recently relocated to live with her boyfriend, John Perry Barlow, a songwriter and a friend of mine. Barlow informed me that Cynthia had unexpectedly died on a plane due to a virus that had previously affected her heart. I rushed over to Barlow’s home, where he, another friend, and I spent hours in mourning. That friend, well-acquainted with tragedy, was John F. Kennedy Jr.

Barlow, who died in 2018 at the age of 70, was recognized for his contributions as a lyricist for the Grateful Dead, an advocate for the internet, and a co-founder of the Electronic Frontier Foundation. He was also a prominent figure during the early days of WIRED and was one of JFK Jr.’s closest pals, a detail he frequently discussed openly.

Their friendship began in 1977 when Jackie Kennedy asked Barlow, who was managing his family ranch in Wyoming, to welcome her 17-year-old son, JFK Jr., to experience ranch life. Barlow accepted, introducing Kennedy to ranch tasks enhanced by LSD, which resulted in a deep friendship.

Their connection endured for years. Barlow recounts a Prince concert he attended with Kennedy, both influenced once again, which energised the entire Radio City Music Hall to dance. Later, Barlow and Cynthia went on double dates with Kennedy and his then-girlfriend, Daryl Hannah, who played a key role in organizing Cynthia’s memorial. In 1994, Kennedy began dating Carolyn Bessette. Barlow grew close to Bessette and attended their wedding in 1996.

In his autobiography, Barlow speculates about the tragic plane crash involving Kennedy, proposing that Kennedy postponed his flight to draft a condolence email after Barlow’s mother’s passing. Barlow expresses regret that Kennedy didn’t follow his previous advice: “When you lose sight of the horizon don’t look for it. Just put your eyes on the instrument and believe it.”

Wall Street Struggles with AI Hysteria

Wall Street Struggles with AI Hysteria

Before the prior week, very few were familiar with the name Alap Shah. The 45-year-old financial analyst and technology entrepreneur had been laboring quietly for two decades. Then, over the weekend, he co-authored a blog with the research company Citrini titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” It was a speculative article discussing the repercussions of artificial intelligence, predicting that by June in that year, AI would elevate unemployment beyond 10 percent and result in considerable market downturns. With a self-assured, prophetic style reminiscent of a Michael Lewis narrative, the authors depicted a negative feedback loop: AI agents displace jobs, consumer spending declines, and firms resort to perpetual layoffs.

Much of the content was familiar territory. Tech figures like Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei have already stated that half of the entry-level white-collar positions will disappear shortly, and Anthropic’s launch of new AI tools earlier this year brought about a sell-off on Wall Street. Nevertheless, the report made a substantial impact, coinciding with a significant drop in the Dow. Alap Shah’s name received unexpected notoriety.

Upon closer inspection, however, the reaction is not as remarkable. Similar to the general public, Wall Street is extremely worried about AI, with minor provocations causing considerable market fluctuations. Financial markets don’t always mirror reality, but these reactions highlight a broader anxiety. The AI future, reminiscent of a William Gibson concept, is unevenly distributed, leading to thrilling yet disconcerting developments.

No one completely grasps AI’s economic influence, but it is destined to be significant. Currently, stock values are elevated, encouraging market hopefulness. However, ominous reports or studies suggesting potential AI-induced disruptions remind investors of the unresolved and urgent issues at play. For example, earlier this month, a small company shifted from selling karaoke machines to AI logistics and released a report on enhancing truck loading efficiency, resulting in major losses in key logistics stocks, none of which had any prior connections to karaoke.

Following its effect on Wall Street, the Citrini report faced considerable backlash. Critics quickly pointed out its flaws. Some contended that AI has not yet had a meaningful effect on the economy. Others referenced historical resilience after technological advancements. A satirical response from Citadel Securities dismissed the report’s conclusions by outlining improbable conditions under which AI could instigate a lasting economic shock.

The most intense criticisms targeted the report’s claim that much of the economy is composed of unproductive middlemen and market makers exploiting public complacency. Shah argued that AI agents will enable consumers to effortlessly find the best deals, rendering apps unnecessary. He pointed out that DoorDash represents this transformation; consumers could circumvent apps, employing AI agents to directly arrange meals from restaurants and delivery services, resulting in a seamless experience. The implication is that companies like DoorDash are essentially comparable to outdated trends.