Military

Iranians Do Not Have Missile Alert System, Thus Volunteers Develop Their Own Warning Map

Iranians Do Not Have Missile Alert System, Thus Volunteers Develop Their Own Warning Map

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Since the beginning of Donald Trump’s confrontation with Iran more than three weeks ago, U.S. military forces have allegedly targeted upwards of 9,000 locations, creating an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty among Iranians in Tehran and across the country. With no governmental warning system in place and amidst Iran’s longest internet blackout, Iranians are confronted with a lack of information.

Even before the airstrikes by Israel and the U.S., the lack of a public emergency alert system and strict state-controlled digital censorship adversely affected millions. Following last year’s 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran, Iranian digital rights advocates launched ‘Mahsa Alert,’ an innovative platform that delivers push notifications regarding warnings of Israeli assaults, confirmed target areas, and offline mapping capabilities. While it does not serve as a substitute for a coordinated emergency service, this tool aids citizens in critical moments.

“There is no emergency alert system in Iran,” asserts Ahmad Ahmadian, CEO of Holistic Resilience, the U.S.-based organization supporting Mahsa Alert. Established last summer, the platform addresses a vital need by charting Iran’s landscape of repression and surveillance. Lightweight applications for Android and iOS have been developed for offline functionality, essential due to Iran’s internet restrictions. Updates are minimal; a recent one was only 60 kilobytes.

Mahsa Alert features overlays of verified “confirmed attacks” through videos or images provided via a Telegram bot or social networks. Alerts regarding evacuation zones, “danger areas,” and potential hazards to nuclear or military sites keep the public informed. Ahmadian notes that most confirmed attacks correspond with pre-identified map locations.

The platform also catalogs CCTV, government checkpoints, medical facilities, religious locations, protest sites, and more. Mahsa Alert’s visibility internationally has increased on social media, encouraging users to disseminate its findings, resulting in over 100,000 daily active users in a brief period. Roughly 335,000 individuals have utilized it this year, with 28% reportedly from within Iran, particularly during January’s crackdown on demonstrators.

Conflict in Iran Drives Up Oil Prices; Trump to Affect Future Rates

Conflict in Iran Drives Up Oil Prices; Trump to Affect Future Rates

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Oil prices soared on Monday following the United States and Israel’s assault on Iran over the weekend, with forecasts indicating that prices might surpass $100 a barrel. Increasing assaults on regional oil and gas facilities, coupled with blocked traffic in a crucial shipping lane, have experts asserting that the actions of the White House and responses from Iran and other oil producers will be pivotal in shaping future prices.

Brent crude prices surged to almost $80 a barrel—a 13 percent increase since Friday—when markets opened on Sunday evening. Tyson Slocum from Public Citizen highlights that the potential risks of the US’s confrontational approach toward Iran had already been integrated into market values, averting an even steeper rise. Nonetheless, the chaotic US reaction post-attack on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has added more unpredictability.

Iran governs the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping corridor. One-fifth of the globe’s oil transits through this route. OPEC nations depend greatly on it to sell their oil. Rory Johnston, a Canadian oil market analyst, mentions that OPEC would typically boost production during a crisis, but its supplies are situated on the opposite side of the conflict zone, limiting its capacity to respond.

Throughout the weekend, while Iran conveyed mixed signals regarding the formal closure of the strait, traffic significantly diminished. Insurance costs for vessels navigating through the strait have surged, and several ships have faced attacks. Johnston characterizes the scenario as a “voluntary closure.”

The likelihood of worsened outcomes persists if regional tensions escalate. In 2019, drone assaults on Saudi oil installations increased oil prices by 15 percent. Similarly, recent drone strikes compelled Saudi Arabia to shutter a refinery, and Qatar’s LNG production was interrupted, triggering a rise in European gas prices. Should these assaults persist, prices may skyrocket.

Clayton Seigle from the Center for Strategic and International Studies cautions that growing Iranian desperation might lead to leveraging energy as a bargaining chip. Should Gulf trade be abandoned or significant oil infrastructure be compromised, prices reaching triple digits could make a comeback.